Hold First, Hike Later: The Fed's Big Week, and the Earnings Wave Right Behind It

Journalists reviewing an economic calendar and market charts in a bright, modern newsroom

By Dakota Jones
LD3 Productions Daily Newsdesk, First Edition
Economic, Business & Financial, Macroeconomics
October 24, 2026

Next week brings a Federal Reserve decision, two closely watched economic reports, and earnings from some of the biggest names in technology. In other words, markets get several chances to change their minds before Friday. They tend to take them.

The broad setup is unusual only in the way a carefully timed traffic jam is unusual: the Fed is widely expected to hold rates first, while economists and markets look toward a possible December hike. Then Thursday brings fresh growth and inflation figures that could either reinforce that outlook or make it look premature.

Here is your guide to the week of October 26–30: what is scheduled, what investors are watching, and why a rate hold is not necessarily a signal to relax.

The Fed’s likely pause is still a tightening story

The Federal Open Market Committee meets October 27–28. The widely expected outcome is no change to the federal-funds target range of 3.75%–4.00%.

In a Reuters poll of 100 economists, 94 expected the Fed to hold rates in October. The poll also found that all respondents expected another increase in December. Read that twice. One hundred economists, and the December consensus is not “maybe” — it is “when.” That is a forecast, not a promise from the Fed. Still, it gives markets a fairly clear script: pause now, potentially hike later. The Fed raised rates in September, and policymakers have signaled a deliberate pace. “Deliberate” here means the central bank is taking time to assess incoming evidence, not that it has declared victory over inflation. A pause before a possible hike is cautious in the way braking before a stop sign is cautious. It tells you the driver noticed the road. It does not tell you where the car is going next.

Investors will be parsing more than the rate announcement. They will look for changes in the Fed’s statement, signs of disagreement among policymakers, and Chair commentary about the December meeting. If officials leave the door open to another increase, markets may hear the message even if the headline says no change.

For households and businesses, that distinction matters. A steady rate does not automatically mean borrowing costs are about to fall. Mortgage rates, financing costs and corporate investment plans respond to the expected path of rates, not just the number announced at one meeting.

Thursday brings the economic reality check

Economic calendar, calculator and tablet displaying abstract financial charts

On Thursday, October 29, the first estimate of third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) is due alongside September’s Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation report. GDP measures the value of goods and services produced across the economy. PCE tracks changes in consumer prices and is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.

Forecasts for third-quarter growth cluster around 3.0% annualized, with the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model tracking as high as 3.5%. Those are estimates, not reported results. A stronger reading could support the view that the economy can withstand tighter policy; a weaker one could complicate the case for another hike.

The inflation report deserves equal attention. The Associated Press preview says annual PCE inflation is expected to accelerate to 3.7% in September from 3.4% in August, remaining well above the Fed’s 2% target. Separately, the weekly economic calendar puts expected monthly core PCE inflation at 0.3%, with the annual core rate around 3.1%. Core PCE excludes food and energy prices, which can swing sharply from month to month.

Why track both headline and core? Headline inflation shows what consumers face across the basket. Core inflation can help reveal whether price pressure is broadening beyond volatile categories. Neither figure tells the whole story alone. Together with GDP, they can make the Fed’s next step look more or less urgent.

The complication is timing: Thursday’s data arrives after the Fed has already met. Policymakers will have to make their decision without that week’s key PCE report in hand. Markets, however, will get the numbers almost immediately afterward. You can expect traders to reconsider their rate assumptions. Possibly before your coffee cools.

AI earnings: show us the return, not just the invoice

The earnings calendar adds another pressure point. Alphabet and Microsoft are due Wednesday, October 28, with Amazon and Intel scheduled for Thursday, October 29.

AI investment is a central theme. Investors want to know whether heavy spending on computing capacity, data centers and AI services is translating into durable revenue and margins. Capital expenditure, often shortened to capex, is the money companies invest in long-term assets, including infrastructure. Spending more can support future growth. It can also weigh on profits now, which is why markets ask for evidence that the investment is paying off.

For Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon, investors are likely to focus on cloud growth, AI demand and the cost of expanding infrastructure. Intel’s report brings its own questions about demand, margins and execution. The details will differ by company, but the shared question is straightforward: Are customers paying enough, soon enough, to justify the bill?

Rate expectations matter here, too. Higher rates can affect how investors value future growth and can raise financing costs. That means Thursday’s PCE and GDP figures may shape the interpretation of earnings guidance just as much as the earnings numbers themselves.

Data-center technician beside brushed-metal server racks with warm accent lights

Oil adds another variable to the inflation equation

What you’ll learn: How geopolitical risk can complicate the Fed’s job even if it does not control the price of oil.

The AP preview links current inflation pressure to higher fuel, shipping and warehousing costs amid Middle East disruption. That matters because energy costs can work their way through transport, production and consumer prices. The Fed cannot set oil prices, but it has to assess how energy shocks affect inflation and expectations.

Newsquawk’s market wrap reported December Brent futures at $116.72 per barrel. That is a futures-contract price, not a spot-price quote, and it reflects the market’s outlook for a later delivery month. The distinction is important; financial numbers are already confusing enough without giving a contract the wrong name.

For investors, the practical point is that sustained energy-cost pressure could make the inflation picture harder to read. It may lift some prices while also squeezing consumers and businesses. A single oil quote cannot predict the Fed’s decision. But alongside the PCE report, it is one more reason markets may spend the week watching for signs that price pressure is sticking around.

The week in brief

Here are the main events to keep on your calendar:

  1. October 27–28: Federal Reserve meeting. A hold at 3.75%–4.00% is widely expected.
  2. Wednesday, October 28: Alphabet and Microsoft earnings.
  3. Thursday, October 29: Third-quarter GDP and September PCE inflation reports.
  4. Thursday, October 29: Amazon and Intel earnings.

The key is how the pieces fit together. The Fed decision sets the tone; GDP and PCE test the economic case; company reports show how businesses are navigating the same conditions. No single event provides a complete answer. Collectively, they could move expectations quickly.

For consumers and businesses in New York and beyond, the lesson is not to treat an expected rate hold as a guarantee of cheaper loans, or a December hike as a certainty. Watch the language, the data and the earnings guidance. Forecasts tell you what people expect. The reports tell you what happened. The Fed then has to decide what it thinks comes next.

FAQ

Is the Fed expected to change rates in October?

A hold at 3.75%–4.00% is widely expected. The Reuters poll found 94 of 100 economists anticipated no October change.

Does an October hold mean rate cuts are coming?

No. The Reuters poll found that all 100 economists surveyed expected a December increase. That is a poll result, not a Fed commitment.

Why are GDP and PCE being watched together?

GDP indicates how quickly economic output is growing. PCE measures consumer-price changes. Together, they help investors assess whether growth is resilient and inflation remains persistent.

What should investors watch in the AI earnings reports?

Look for evidence of AI demand, cloud growth, spending plans and returns on investment, not just headline revenue.

Are these forecasts guarantees?

No. Forecasts are estimates, and markets can change their expectations as new information arrives.

Final Thoughts

The week ahead is a test of competing stories: inflation is still elevated, the economy may be growing at a solid pace, and technology companies are being asked to show what their AI investments can deliver. The Fed is expected to pause, but the potential December hike remains firmly in the conversation.

Your best guide is to separate what is scheduled, what is forecast and what is confirmed. Then follow the data as it arrives. In a week this crowded, confidence is easy to find. Certainty is not.

This article is for news and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice.

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