Intel Posted Great Numbers and Still Had Its Worst Day Since 1974
By Dakota Jones
Desk: Economic, Business & Financial, Corporate & Industry.
Intel delivered a strong quarter. Investors looked at the next one and hit the exit.
On Friday, October 30, shares closed at $65.76, down 28.58%. Intel’s worst day since 1974. Nearly $140 billion in market value vanished in a session. That is a remarkable reaction to an earnings report that, on its own, looked pretty good.
The catch: markets don’t pay for yesterday’s results alone. They price what they think comes next. And Intel’s next-quarter forecast gave investors plenty to chew on, and apparently not much to enjoy.
What Happened
Intel reported third-quarter results on Thursday, October 29. Revenue reached $16.5 billion, up 21% year over year. Adjusted, or non-GAAP, earnings were $0.52 per share, above estimates. GAAP earnings were $0.60 per share. The company generated $5.1 billion in operating cash flow.
Its data center and AI business was the standout: revenue climbed 78% to $7.3 billion. CFO David Zinsner called it Intel’s strongest data-center revenue growth in 15 years. Intel Foundry revenue was $6.7 billion, up 58%.
[ON-SCREEN GRAPHIC | THE QUARTER VS. THE FORECAST]
| Measure | Q3 2026 result | Q4 2026 outlook | Analyst expectation for Q4 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $16.5 billion | $15.0–$16.0 billion | Roughly $17 billion |
| Non-GAAP EPS | $0.52 | $0.25 | $0.43 |
EPS means earnings per share. Non-GAAP figures are adjusted measures; Intel cautions that they should not be treated as a substitute for GAAP results.
The Q4 outlook was the problem. Intel forecast revenue of $15.0 billion to $16.0 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $0.25. Analysts had expected roughly $17 billion in revenue and $0.43 in EPS. The company’s quarter beat expectations; its forecast missed them. The distinction mattered a lot on Friday.
Chart: Yahoo Finance, using Norgate Data.
Intel pointed to two key pressures. First, the PC market is weakening. AI data centers are absorbing memory-chip supply, helping push up prices for laptops and desktops. Intel expects the PC slowdown to last at least through the first half of 2027. It now anticipates PC shipments will fall about 12% this year and another 10% in 2027.
Second, an accident at Intel’s factory in Israel is expected to cost about $300 million in Q4 revenue. CFO Zinsner also noted softness in the business. None of that makes the forecast look more comfortable.
Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon called the outlook “terrible” and cut his price target to $75 from $110. CEO Lip-Bu Tan offered a longer view on the earnings call: “Rebuilding Intel is going to be a multiyear journey, and I remain firmly committed to making it happen.”
That is a serious commitment. It is also not a Q4 revenue forecast.
Why It Matters
The stock’s fall was dramatic, but context changes the picture. Intel shares nearly quadrupled from the start of 2026 to their record on June 22. Even after Friday’s plunge, the stock remained up nearly 80% for the year, while losing more than half its value since that June peak.
Chart: Yahoo Finance, citing Intel filings.
That rally helps explain the severity of the reset. When a stock has climbed so sharply, expectations tend to climb with it. A strong quarter may not be enough when investors were looking for strong results and reassuring guidance. Intel delivered the first part. The second one missed.
The selloff also reached beyond Intel. PC makers Dell and HP fell, and Intel’s decline contributed to a broader technology retreat. The Nasdaq dropped 2.86% on Friday; market reports described it as the worst day for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq since June. Investor concern about AI spending and cash burn across the technology sector added to the pressure.
Washington felt the hit too. The U.S. government’s 9.9% stake in Intel, purchased last August at $20.47 a share, lost more than $10 billion in value on Friday. The stake was still worth about three times what the government paid. “Lost billions” is an alarming headline; the purchase price is useful context.
Intel also completed a $23 billion public equity offering this quarter to fund growth. That puts the outlook in sharper focus: investors are being asked to judge not just current demand, but the company’s ability to turn investment into growth while PC sales weaken and the rebuilding effort continues.
FAQ
Did Intel’s Q3 results disappoint?
Not on the central figures provided here. Revenue rose 21% year over year, and adjusted EPS of $0.52 beat estimates. The weaker-than-expected Q4 outlook drove the reaction.
Why does the PC market matter if data center and AI revenue grew so quickly?
The businesses face different demand conditions. Data center and AI revenue surged, but Intel also expects a prolonged PC slowdown, which weighs on its near-term outlook.
Does Friday’s drop mean Intel is down for the year?
No. After the decline, the shares were still up nearly 80% in 2026, though down more than half from the June 22 record.
Verdict
Intel’s third quarter was good. Its guidance was not good enough for investors who had bid the stock sharply higher and wanted evidence that momentum could continue.
That does not erase the data-center growth, the foundry gains, or the cash generated during the quarter. But it does put the near-term challenge in plain view: a softer PC market, a factory disruption in Israel, and a multiyear turnaround that CEO Tan says will take time.
Friday’s message from the market was blunt: strong results are welcome; confidence in what comes next is what investors are paying for. Intel has work to do to earn more of it. For more coverage, visit LD3’s Economic, Business & Financial desk.
Sources
- Intel Corporation, “Intel Reports Third-Quarter 2026 Financial Results,” October 29, 2026.
https://www.intc.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1786/intel-reports-third-quarter-2026-financial-results - Jared Blikre, Yahoo Finance, “Intel stock plunges nearly 29%, its worst day since 1974,” October 30, 2026.
https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/article/intel-stock-plunges-nearly-29-its-worst-day-since-1974-205955309.html