Mississippi's Senate Race Is Still Counting: Colom's Lead Hits 2,500 and Nobody Knows How Many Ballots Are Left

By Dakota Jones
Desk: Political & Government, Campaigns & Elections
Evening run · Monday, November 9, 2026 · Estimated runtime: 18–20 minutes

[OPEN]

Mississippi’s U.S. Senate race is still uncalled nearly a week after Election Day. Democrat Scott Colom leads Republican incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith by roughly 2,500 votes. About 97% of ballots have been counted. More than 953,000 are already in the tally.

And the state still cannot say exactly how many ballots remain.

That is the headline tonight. Not a recount. Not a court fight. Not a sudden twist in the returns. The main event is the administrative wringing-out: affidavit ballots being reviewed, voters facing an identification deadline, absentee ballots still arriving, and county results still making their way into the statewide system.

The count is moving toward Colom. The process is moving at the speed of county uploads and statutory deadlines. Those are not the same thing.

Welcome to the part of an election that does not fit neatly into a victory graphic.

[ON SCREEN: UNOFFICIAL RESULTS, MONDAY MORNING]

Candidate	Party	Share of vote
Scott Colom	Democrat	49.1%
Cindy Hyde-Smith	Republican	48.8%
Ty Pinkins	Independent	About 2%

About 97% of ballots counted; more than 953,000 ballots counted. Figures are unofficial.

The lead has grown. The race is not called.

Here is what you will learn in this update: what the current margin says, what it does not say, and why the remaining vote cannot yet be neatly summarized as one dependable number.

As of Monday morning, Colom was ahead by roughly 2,500 votes. That is a meaningful lead. It is also not a certified result, and it is not a margin that makes the outstanding ballots irrelevant.

The margin has widened day by day:

Nov. 4: Colom led by 65 votes.
Nov. 5: His lead grew to 1,138.
Nov. 6: He was ahead by just under 2,000.
Monday, Nov. 9: The lead reached roughly 2,500.

That is a clear direction of travel in the reported totals. It is not a promise that the next batch will move the same way. Votes do not have a contractual obligation to follow a trend line, however tidy the chart looks.

Republican incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith remains close behind. Independent Ty Pinkins has about 2% of the vote. The contest is still too close to call, and the totals remain unofficial while counties continue their work.

The important distinction is simple: a lead is a count; a call is a projection; certification is an official process. They are related, but they are not interchangeable. Mississippi is still working through the last two.

The missing number is part of the story.

Mississippi Secretary of State Michael Watson said Monday morning that 75 of the state’s 82 counties had uploaded unofficial results. Just over 2,800 absentee mail-in ballots were still out.

Watson also reported 12,767 affidavit ballots processed, with roughly 77% accepted. That works out to about 9,831 votes added to the tally from those processed affidavits.

But “processed” does not mean every affidavit ballot has been accepted. And the accepted ballots are not the same thing as the number still waiting for review.

Watson estimated that roughly 8,000 affidavit ballots and 2,800 absentee mail-in ballots remained to be counted. His office does not know the exact total of outstanding ballots until counties upload their figures to the statewide system.

That is not a minor footnote. It is the central logistical problem.

In his explanation, Watson said counties could each provide a figure if contacted individually. But until the information is uploaded, the statewide system does not provide the exact total. In other words, the information may exist locally without yet adding up to one verified statewide number.

There is a dry joke available here about a statewide election system waiting on county-by-county homework. We will spare the county election workers the punchline. They are doing the work. The joke belongs to a process where the central picture remains incomplete while the count is already being watched nationally.

[ON SCREEN: WHAT IS KNOWN. WHAT IS NOT]

Known Monday morning	Still not known statewide
75 of 82 counties had uploaded unofficial results	Exact total of outstanding affidavit ballots
Just over 2,800 absentee mail-in ballots were still out	How the remaining ballots will affect the margin
12,767 affidavit ballots had been processed	Complete county totals before uploads are finished
Roughly 77% of processed affidavits were accepted	Final, certified result

Affidavit ballots: what they are and what happens next

You may hear “affidavit ballot” and “provisional ballot” used in conversation around election coverage. Here, an affidavit ballot is a ballot set aside while officials verify a voter’s eligibility or resolve an issue.

That can happen for more than one reason. A voter’s name may not appear on the precinct registration list. The voter may have gone to the wrong precinct. Or the voter may have lacked an acceptable photo ID when voting.

Those ballots are not automatically discarded, and they are not automatically counted. Election officials review them under the applicable process and determine whether they can be accepted.

The distinction matters because the number cast, the number processed, the number accepted, and the number still awaiting action are separate figures. They describe different stages. Treating them as one big pile called “the ballots” is a good way to turn a complicated process into a confidently wrong sentence.

For voters who cast an affidavit ballot because they did not have acceptable photo identification, the deadline is specific: they must present ID at their county clerk’s office by Tuesday, Nov. 10.

Other affidavit-ballot verification issues are handled through the state’s Election Commission, according to the reported process. The deadline for an eligible voter to provide missing ID is not a deadline for every affidavit ballot to be resolved in the same way.

That is why the count has multiple moving parts. Some voters may need to complete a step. Officials must review and process ballots. Counties must upload the totals. And the statewide count cannot show a complete picture until the local work is reflected in the system.

If you cast an affidavit ballot because of an ID issue, contact your county clerk directly and confirm what you need to do. Do not rely on a social-media summary, a screenshot, or an assumption that someone else has already handled it. The deadline is Tuesday, Nov. 10.

Absentee ballots have a deadline, too.

Just over 2,800 absentee mail-in ballots were still outstanding Monday morning. Under the timeline described by Watson, mailed ballots must be received within five business days of Election Day. For this election, that deadline is also Tuesday, Nov. 10.

That means the outstanding ballot picture has two important Tuesday deadlines: the arrival deadline for qualifying mailed ballots and the deadline for voters curing affidavit ballots due to missing photo ID.

Those are not the same process. One concerns receipt of mailed ballots; the other concerns a voter presenting identification to a county clerk. But both sit inside the same narrow window, and both can affect the final count.

Here is the practical takeaway for you: do not confuse a ballot being mailed with a ballot being received. The rule described by the secretary of state is about receipt within the required period. And if your affidavit ballot needs an ID follow-up, the state has given a specific place and date: your county clerk’s office by Tuesday.

The election administration work is not finished just because Election Day is over. In close races, the deadline calendar becomes part of the story. It is less dramatic than election night. It is also how the result becomes reliable.

Certification is the next checkpoint.

Counties still need to finish their work and certify their results. The certification deadline is Nov. 13. Watson said he expects the unofficial totals to turn official by Thursday, as counties complete the necessary checks and uploads.

Those milestones are closely connected, but they should not be collapsed into one. “Unofficial totals turning official” and county certification refer to a process with defined steps. The short version: the state expects the numbers to be checked and finalized in the coming days, but until that happens, Monday’s margin remains unofficial.

The race is expected to be called by Friday at the latest. That is an expectation, not a guarantee that every remaining ballot will resolve itself on schedule. Counties still need to complete their reviews, and the totals must be finalized before the result is settled.

For additional election coverage and a broader view of races still counting, visit LD3 Productions’ Election Headquarters and our Political & Government coverage. The Campaigns & Elections desk tracks the ballot-counting and certification process.

No automatic recount. No magic button.

Mississippi does not have an automatic recount law. A narrow margin does not, by itself, trigger an automatic statewide recount.

Any recount or challenge would have to be court-ordered after certification, and it would proceed county by county. That is a very different arrangement from a system where a close result automatically sends ballots back through a recount process.

So the current story is not “the recount has started.” It has not. The current story is that the state is completing the count and certification steps, with the possibility of legal proceedings only if a challenge is brought and a court orders action.

That distinction is worth keeping straight. A close race can generate talk of recounts. Talk is not an order. A remaining count is not a recount. And a margin that is still changing is not, by itself, a legal trigger.

The system has chosen a particular sequence: finish the county work, certify the results, then address any court-ordered challenge county by county. This is democracy with a filing deadline and a lot of clerical follow-through. Not glamorous. Quite important.

A Mississippi milestone hangs on the final tally.

Colom is a Columbus-based district attorney. His appointment to a federal judgeship was blocked by Hyde-Smith in 2023. He is now trying to become the first Democrat to represent Mississippi in the U.S. Senate since 1982.

That year is also the year Colom was born.

It is a striking detail, but the race is not a history book yet. The final count has not been certified, and the election has not been called. The historical significance is clear; the outcome remains unresolved.

For Hyde-Smith, the contest is a bid to retain her Senate seat. For Colom, the race could end a decades-long stretch without a Democrat representing Mississippi in the chamber. Both candidates remain separated by a narrow margin, and the remaining ballots will determine whether the result becomes a political milestone or a close loss.

There is no need to dress the situation up. The arithmetic currently favors Colom. The administrative process is not finished. Both statements can be true at once.

What you should watch next

Here is the short checklist for the next few days:

Tuesday, Nov. 10: Voters whose affidavit ballots require acceptable photo ID must present it at their county clerk’s office by this deadline.
Tuesday, Nov. 10: Qualifying mailed ballots must be received within five business days of Election Day.
County uploads: Seven counties had not uploaded unofficial results as of Monday morning. Updated uploads may change the statewide picture.
Certification: Counties have through Nov. 13 to certify results. Watson said he expects unofficial totals to turn official by Thursday.
Potential court action: Mississippi has no automatic recount law. Any recount or challenge would require a court order after certification.
Expected call: The race is expected to be called by Friday at the latest, but that remains an expectation rather than an official result.

The point is not that something improper is happening. The available information describes a count still in progress, with separate deadlines and county-level steps. The point is that voters and observers deserve a clear account of what has been counted, what remains, and what is not yet known.

Accuracy matters most when the numbers are close. It is fair to say Colom leads. It is not fair to say the race is over. It is accurate to report that thousands of ballots remain in the process. It is equally important to say that the secretary of state’s office does not yet know the exact statewide total.

FAQ: Mississippi’s Senate count

Who is leading the race?

Democrat Scott Colom leads Republican incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith by roughly 2,500 votes as of Monday morning, Nov. 9. The result is unofficial and the race has not been called.

How many ballots have been counted?

More than 953,000 ballots, or about 97% of the total, had been counted. The statewide total is still subject to updates as counties finish reporting.

How many ballots remain?

Watson estimated roughly 8,000 affidavit ballots and 2,800 absentee mail-in ballots remained to be counted. His office said it does not know the exact statewide total until counties upload their figures.

What does “affidavit ballot” mean?

It is a ballot set aside while officials verify a voter’s eligibility or resolve a voting issue. Some voters who lacked acceptable photo ID can complete the required step by presenting ID at their county clerk’s office by Tuesday, Nov. 10.

When are absentee ballots due?

The reported deadline for mailed ballots is within five business days of Election Day. For this election, that is Tuesday, Nov. 10. The ballot must be received within the required period.

Is there an automatic recount?

No. Mississippi has no automatic recount law. Any recount or challenge would be court-ordered after certification and handled county by county.

When could the race be called?

The race is expected to be called by Friday at the latest. That is an expectation, not a certification or a guarantee.

Final thoughts

The count is leaning toward Colom. It is not complete. The margin has grown from 65 votes on Nov. 4 to roughly 2,500 on Monday, Nov. 9, but the state is still processing ballots, waiting on county uploads, and working through deadlines that matter to voters and officials alike.

The biggest story tonight is the administrative gap between a large statewide count and a precise final tally. The secretary of state’s office has published meaningful figures: 75 of 82 counties uploaded, 12,767 affidavit ballots processed, roughly 77% accepted, and just over 2,800 absentee mail-in ballots still out. It has also said what it does not have: an exact statewide total of every ballot still pending.

That uncertainty deserves clear reporting, not guesswork. The next useful update will come from the ballots actually processed, the counties actually reporting, and the certification process actually completed. Until then, the Senate race remains uncalled.

Mississippi’s Senate seat is not being held hostage by voters or election workers. It is being held in the final stretch by a system that still needs county-by-county work to finish. The process is not elegant. It is the process. And for now, the arithmetic says Colom leads while the paperwork says: not yet.

Sources

This is a development update based on unofficial results and reporting available Monday, Nov. 9, 2026. Figures may change as ballots are processed, counties upload results, and results are certified.